The venues Predictions brings together
On this page
A venue is the exchange where a prediction market's contracts are traded. Predictions reads four of them and puts their markets side by side, so you can see where a price comes from and whether another venue prices the same question differently.
#The four venues
| Venue | What the page says about it | How its money is shown |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | A U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC (the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) | Counted in contracts and shown as dollars at their price, an estimate |
| Polymarket | Counts dollars | Dollars |
| ForecastEx | Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC | Contracts shown as dollars at their price, an estimate |
| Crypto.com | Lists its markets on Crypto.com Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC | Dollars traded |
The same words appear in the Reading the odds box beside every list of markets, and the note under each block of odds says that money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Predictions does not rank the venues or recommend one.
#Open a market on its venue
Every card and every market page names its venue in a chip, such as Polymarket or Kalshi. Select the chip to open the same market on the venue's own site in a new tab. Rest the pointer on it to see when Predictions last read that venue's prices.
The venue's own page is where the market's full rules are. A market's page here can also unfold a short version under The rules, with a link to the venue for the rest. The venue's rules decide how the market is settled.
Venue chips sit at the foot of a card. This question is listed on all four venues, so all four chips appear.
- 1Topic
- 2Follow star
- 3Leading answer and its chance
- 4Every answer, with its move today
- 5Venues that list it
- 6When it is decided, and the money
#When more than one venue asks the same question
Predictions finds questions that two or more venues ask and shows them together, in three places:
- On a card. For a yes-or-no question, each chip carries its venue's own number, such as Kalshi 62%.
- On a market's page. A box named The same question on and the other venue's name shows the other venue's market, with how many points apart the two chances are.
- On the Venues Compared page. Every question more than one venue asks, ranked by how far apart the venues are. See Compare venues.
The same question on another venue, shown beside this market and never averaged.
- 1Each venue's number for the same outcome
- 2How many points apart
- 3The other venue's market
Matches are found by the question's topic and wording, the years and the outcomes it lists, and for games by the sport, the day and the two teams. The finding is automatic, so now and then two questions that look alike are not quite the same. A big gap between two venues is often a sign of that: read both markets' rules before comparing.
Predictions never averages venues. Each venue's number is shown as it is, because each venue's rules decide its own market.
#Why the numbers differ
- Each venue has its own traders and its own rules for how a question is settled.
- Prices are read at slightly different moments, and the last trade on a quiet market may be old.
- Venues word their outcomes differently, and Predictions compares only the outcomes both venues quote.
#Estimated dates on Polymarket
Polymarket's end dates are estimates. A Polymarket market can stay open past its listed end while its result is awaited. Its card then says Result pending, and its page notes the listed end and that it is still trading until the result is in.
#Common questions
Which venue is the best one?
Predictions does not rank them. Each lists different questions and has its own rules; follow a chip to the venue's site to read them.
Can I place a trade from Predictions?
No. A chip opens the market on the venue's own site, where its own terms apply.
Why is a market on only one venue?
Each venue chooses what to list, so many questions appear on one venue only and there is nothing to compare.
Why does a venue's number differ from the one on its own site?
Predictions reads each venue's prices every few minutes, so a number can be slightly behind. The chip's pointer note says how long ago the price was read.
Does Predictions add up the money from every venue?
Where a number covers several venues, such as the money by topic on the overview, it is the venues' dollars added together, with Kalshi's and ForecastEx's estimated from contracts. A single market's money is always that venue's own.